For decades, the Netherlands has lived with a long-standing contradiction known as the “backdoor problem”: coffeeshops could sell cannabis under certain conditions as part of the country’s tolerance policy, while the commercial cultivation supplying those shops remained outside the regulated framework. Since April 2025, the country has been trying to resolve that contradiction through a closed-chain experiment that allows coffeeshops in 10 municipalities to sell only cannabis produced by licensed growers.
Now, the first follow-up assessment offers an early look at what happens when that supply chain operates within a regulated framework. The findings, reported by show clear changes in product availability and prices but, at least for now, little change in consumption levels, consumers’ self-reported health, or public safety around coffeeshops.
The study, conducted by Breuer&Intraval, RAND Europe, and the Trimbos Institute at the request of the Research and Documentation Centre (WODC), compares the 10 participating municipalities with 10 others where the traditional tolerance policy remains in place. Researchers conducted 85 interviews with local authorities, growers, coffeeshop owners, and regulatory agencies; surveyed 865 visitors and 441 people who live or work near coffeeshops; counted visitors at 143 shops; and analyzed the menus of 134 establishments. The study also incorporated police data and surveys on purchases made through the illicit market.
Cannabis in the Netherlands: More Products and Lower-Priced Flower
One of the most noticeable changes was seen on coffeeshop shelves. Compared with the initial measurement, the range of cannabis products available in participating municipalities expanded, with more flower strains, hash, and pre-rolled joints. Other products, including edibles, vapes, and concentrates, also became more common. The increase in product variety was more pronounced than in the comparison municipalities. By the time of this first follow-up measurement, nearly all coffeeshops in the participating municipalities offered edibles, while roughly 6 in 10 sold vapes.
Prices, however, did not move in the same direction across all categories. Flower prices fell more sharply in the experimental municipalities, with domestically grown varieties also becoming cheaper. Hash prices moved in the opposite direction, increasing over the same period, while pre-rolls saw modest price increases in both groups.
Supply was uneven from the start. During the early stages, some coffeeshops struggled to maintain their usual product selection, particularly when it came to hash, raising concerns that customers could turn to the illicit market. People interviewed for the study also pointed to issues with the quality and variety of regulated hash during the initial phase. As licensed growers ramped up production, those problems began to ease.
Buying More Cannabis Didn’t Mean Consuming More
The findings on consumer behavior offer another interesting takeaway. There were no major changes in the number of coffeeshop visitors or how frequently they visited. In the regulated municipalities, however, the average amount of flower purchased per transaction increased, while customers’ perception of its value for money improved.
But that didn’t translate into more frequent cannabis use. Researchers also found no notable changes in participants’ self-reported health or in the share of consumers classified as being at increased risk of problematic cannabis use according to the Cannabis Abuse Screening Test (CAST).
The study does document concerns among municipal officials and prevention specialists about products containing high levels of THC, particularly vapes, edibles, and concentrates. So far, however, there are no clear signs of an increase in health incidents. Several stakeholders are calling for clearer nationwide rules governing potency and consumer information.
The Illicit Market Is Still Competing
Still, regulation has not eliminated the unregulated market overnight. People who continue to buy cannabis outside coffeeshops primarily cite lower prices, good value for money, and the ability to purchase larger quantities. Ordering from delivery services or contacting dealers by phone or through apps remain among the main ways consumers obtain weed.
So far, the study finds no clear differences in public health, safety, or quality of life attributable to the experiment. People living or working near coffeeshops continued to rate their neighborhoods positively, while perceptions of safety remained similar to those recorded in the initial measurement.
The regulated supply chain has introduced greater traceability: production, transportation, and sales must be registered, making it easier to trace where cannabis comes from. The system experienced technical and administrative problems during its rollout, although several appear to have been typical implementation challenges associated with a new regulatory framework.
For now, cannabis regulation in the Netherlands appears to be having a clearer effect on how the market operates than on consumer behavior. The researchers stress that this is only the first follow-up snapshot of the experiment. Further rounds of research will be needed to determine whether these changes persist and what effects they may have over the long term.
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