Original publication: November 1986.
MORE POT ON THE WAY FOR ’87
JORGE CERVANTES
Whew! The summer marijuana drought is over! The law of supply and demand drove the summertime marijuana price sky high. This scarcity created a run on last year’s harvest of quality outdoor buds. As soon as the pot surfaced on the street, it was sold and smoked. This phenomena is similar to what happens when depositors learn their bank is running out of money; the depositors run to withdraw all of their savings. In this case, the savings go up in smoke.
For the third consecutive year the Campaign Against Marijuana Planting (CAMP) contributed to a lighter harvest and higher marijuana price. CAMP aided local law enforcement agencies in staging marijuana eradication raids all across the United States. As well as harvesting an enormous amount of wild Midwestern fibrous “no high” hemp plants, they confiscated thousands of marijuana plants cultivated by guerilla growers.
Sound bad? Not really. CAMP claims to have harvested a larger percentage of the 1985 marijuana crop than is humanly possible. CAMP releases their own facts and figures and the sad fact is, they believe their own news releases. For example, CAMP claims to have eradicated over 90% of the California marijuana crop. Is it possible to eradicate over 90% of the nation’s most valuable cash crop in the largest agricultural state in the Union? I doubt it.
According to the 1985 “Annual Marijuana Growers Survey” by Sinsemilla Tips Magazine (Vol.5, #4), approximately 11% of the crop was confiscated by the law. As much as 16% might have been stolen by thieves. This actual survey of real growers gives thieves more credit for cheating the growers out of their mature harvest than law enforcement officials. The choice is yours: which set of “facts” sounds more believable to you?
Guerilla growers now raise fewer, more potent plants in well camouflaged patches. These varieties of marijuana produce heavier, more potent yields on more compact plants. Now the harvest of 1986 is coming in. More marijuana will be available this year because there is more of it being grown than last year, just like the year before.
Marijuana imports have slowed to a crawl. One reason: cocaine. This powder is much easier and more profitable to smuggle than marijuana. Cocaine sells for ten times as much and weighs only a fraction as much as marijuana, making it easier to conceal and transport. The penalties are essentially the same for the illegal importers. Consequently, smugglers find cocaine rather than marijuana to be the most profitable contraband.
There is such a glut of cocaine on the US market that the new highly addictive “crack” has won a firm place in the market.
Colombia claims to have eradicated over 85% of its marijuana fields. Nowhere is it ever mentioned that the cocaine traffic has simply replaced the marijuana traffic. This summer, authorities confiscated thousands of pounds of cocaine in Colombia. The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) was elated. They waited for an increase in the street price of cocaine to signify the impact of the largest coke bust in history.
To the DEA’s chagrin, there was no change in the supply or price of cocaine in the United States.
Smart domestic growers have seen the writing on the wall. To quote from Newsweek magazine (August 4,1986, p. 16) “A pound of high-grade California sinsemilla, available on the East Coast for $2,000 last year, currently sells for $5,000.” This price seems inflated to me, but I’ve heard numerous rumors from many cities that people are literally begging for more $3,000 pounds!
Look for higher prices in the 1986-87 harvest season. Last year, at the peak of the harvest season, the growers’ rock bottom wholesale price was $1800 per pound, in quantity. This year that base price will probably be in the $2,000 to $2,500 per pound range.
This year, the growers’ answer to CAMP is: “If CAMP is looking for marijuana, let them find marijuana. Let them try to find it all. We will always harvest some of the crop. It is easier to plant hundreds of plants than it is to find and destroy them.”
This year, I believe we will realize an actual 2-10% increase in domestic marijuana production over 1985. However, this harvest will have to supply a much larger demand. The wholesale and retail price will increase. More people will start growing at home, both indoors and outdoors, to help cut expenses and take advantage of the higher market price. Strange: the intent of the DEA and CAMP was to eradicate marijuana. But by their restrictive actions, these agencies are creating artificially high prices and promoting more domestic production.
The ’86 harvest is coming in, and more marijuana will be available this year because more of it is being grown than last year.
