Six state markets are set to contribute more than 75% of U.S. cannabis sales growth over the next three years, according to data from cannabis wholesale platform LeafLink. Those states include Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Ohio – which already have adult-use cannabis markets – and Minnesota, which is expected to come online this year.
According to LeafLink data, Illinois’ cannabis market is expected to reach $2.8 billion in 2027, driven by “high unit prices, and strong retail density in key cities across the state.” LeafLink also expects about 140 new social equity licenses to come online over the next six to 12 months.
New Jersey’s adult-use cannabis market is expected to total $2 billion by 2027, according to LeakLink, with more than 1,500 new licenses planned to be issued by the middle of next year across the supply chain. LeafLink notes that the licenses will be “highly fragmented” including 270 new cultivation licenses, more than 200 manufacturers, 600-plus dispensaries, and more than 400 integrated microbusinesses which will all be independent, non-vertical licenses.
In New York, where LeafLink notes two to three retail dispensaries are opening weekly in the state, sales are expected to reach $2.5 billion by 2027. According to LeafLink data, retail sales in the state grew from about $20 million monthly at the beginning of 2024 to about $110 million in January 2025.
Retail cannabis sales in Maryland could total $2.1 billion by 2027, according to LeafLink, with the state currently in the process of issuing 925 new licenses across the supply chain. Those licenses include 300 retail licenses, 175 cultivators, 200 processors, 200 delivery-only microbusinesses, and 50 consumption lounges with caps on license ownership.
While adult-use sales have yet to launch in Minnesota, LeafLink expects the market to total $800 million by 2027, with the state planning to allow at least one store per 12,000 residents which would equal 512 dispensaries statewide.
LeafLink estimates that Ohio’s market will total $2 billion in 2027, noting that monthly sales in the state doubled throughout the year and that the continued issuance of licenses over the next several years would ultimately triple retail cannabis access in the state.
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